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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dreamerswin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lavaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dreamers

No games played over 6 months.

Lava

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
63%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
payk · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddon
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
618 picks · 397 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
544 picks · 526 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
528 picks · 431 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
424 picks · 510 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
376 picks · 373 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
355 picks · 196 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
318 picks · 208 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 770 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:34
Dreamers 38%Lava 62%
The model gave 62% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 41:13.
Game 2prediction correct35:23
Dreamers 38%Lava 62%
The model gave 62% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 47:30.
Game 3prediction correct27:16
Dreamers 38%Lava 62%
The model gave 62% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 30:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 62%
Series resultDreamers 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3