BTS Pro Series Season 14: Америка · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5RATFORCESTAFF
Jakiro
albinozebra · 35 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 12 games
Silencer
albinozebra · 12 games
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 11 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
dnm · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
dnm · 11 games
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
Treant Protectorsignature
albinozebra · 11 games
Ravens
Rubick
d1smar · 14 games
Tiny
d1smar · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Cara · 13 games
Visagesignature
Benjaz · 11 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
Benjaz · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
DaaD- · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
616 picks · 397 bans
Tusk
543 picks · 526 bans
Tiny
528 picks · 430 bans
Treant Protector
423 picks · 509 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 372 bans
Snapfire
355 picks · 194 bans
Clockwerk
318 picks · 208 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 469 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 39%
Hero pool strength56% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total61% 5RATFORCESTAFF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:12
5RATFORCESTAFF 57%Ravens 43%
The model gave 57% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophetdnm
TerrorbladeMnz
Queen of Painred2
BeastmasterBenjaz
Primal BeastSpeeed
BatriderPiPi
RubickMoOz
Tuskd1smar
Treant Protectoralbinozebra
Crystal MaidenCara
Game 2prediction correct38:13
5RATFORCESTAFF 61%Ravens 39%
The model gave 61% on 5RATFORCESTAFF — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 34:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshracred2
Troll WarlordMnz
Marcidnm
Ember SpiritPiPi
BroodmotherSpeeed
BeastmasterBenjaz
Skywrath Magealbinozebra
Rubickd1smar
RikiMoOz
Crystal MaidenCara
Model check result
Model favorite5RATFORCESTAFF · 61%
Series result5RATFORCESTAFF 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2