Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Runeswin 2:0series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balrogsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Runes
Crystal Maiden
Nuages · 3 games
Snapfire
Nuages · 3 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
Mirana
Jupiter · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Balrogs
Rubicksignature
Demon · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 7 games
Leshracsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 6 games
Tusksignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 6 games
Jakiro
ShakaLord · 5 games
Silencer
ShakaLord · 5 games
Mirana
Demon · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
614 picks · 397 bans
Tusk
542 picks · 526 bans
Tiny
528 picks · 430 bans
Treant Protector
423 picks · 507 bans
Mirana
375 picks · 372 bans
Snapfire
354 picks · 194 bans
Clockwerk
317 picks · 208 bans
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 767 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 73%
Hero pool strength61% Balrogs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:27
No Runes 28%Balrogs 72%
The model gave 72% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 34:34.
Game 2prediction correct26:31
No Runes 28%Balrogs 72%
The model gave 72% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 51:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 72%
Series resultNo Runes 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2