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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
YNTloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Sigma.YNTwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

YNT

No games played over 6 months.

Sigma.YNT

Tiny
Tiny
queezy · 33 games
55%
Marci
Marcioften banned
kur0patbI4 · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 18 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
queezy · 18 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
toshiyb · 16 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
VANSKOR · 15 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
dSa · 13 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
toshiyb · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
613 picks · 393 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
542 picks · 523 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
528 picks · 429 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
420 picks · 502 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
376 picks · 373 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
354 picks · 189 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
315 picks · 205 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 766 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Sigma.YNT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Sigma.YNT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:12
YNT 45%Sigma.YNT 55%
The model gave 55% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 44:01.
Game 2prediction correct19:11
YNT 45%Sigma.YNT 55%
The model gave 55% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 29:47.
Game 3prediction correct19:27
YNT 45%Sigma.YNT 55%
The model gave 55% on Sigma.YNT — the game was taken by Sigma.YNT in 50:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteSigma.YNT · 55%
Series resultSigma.YNT 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3