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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBZSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 11 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 10 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Frisk · 9 games
89%
Marci
Marcisignature
Frisk · 8 games
88%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 8 games
75%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Yang · 8 games
88%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Yang · 7 games
57%

LBZS

Rubick
Rubick
Helios · 5 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
33%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Shanks · 3 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Fonte · 3 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
guoguo · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
guoguo · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
CatYou · 2 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Tzy · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
605 picks · 393 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
539 picks · 520 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
529 picks · 431 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
418 picks · 499 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
379 picks · 371 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
354 picks · 188 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 762 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
311 picks · 206 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:11
Vici Gaming 69%LBZS 31%
The model gave 69% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 23:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorpoyoyo
53% · 166 games50% · 218 games
Nature's ProphetFonte
Nature's Prophet
Lycan
Lycanniu
54% · 96 games52% · 282 games
PuckShanks
Puck
Batrider
BatriderSetsu
53% · 208 games52% · 307 games
PangolierTzy
Pangolier
Clockwerk
ClockwerkYang
45% · 232 games53% · 84 games
RikiHelios
Riki
Rubick
Rubickfy
46% · 370 games43% · 181 game
Silencerguoguo
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct20:7
Vici Gaming 71%LBZS 29%
The model gave 71% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 23:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetpoyoyo
47% · 126 games55% · 297 games
LinaShanks
Lina
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSetsu
56% · 196 games44% · 321 game
Ember SpiritFonte
Ember Spirit
Magnus
Magnusniu
52% · 55 games57% · 21 game
AxeTzy
Axe
Rubick
Rubickfy
54% · 263 games49% · 64 games
Earth SpiritHelios
Earth Spirit
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenYang
50% · 125 games39% · 62 games
Lichguoguo
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 82%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2