Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Limitwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Big Brain
Death Prophetsignature
Molasses · 6 games
Snapfire
marblue · 5 games
Tiny
marblue · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Manic · 4 games
Clockwerk
Tz. · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
blessing · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Tz. · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Molasses · 2 games
Limit
Tusksignature
Yds · 12 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 8 games
Tinysignature
Yds · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Srf · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Srf · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
605 picks · 393 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 520 bans
Tiny
527 picks · 431 bans
Treant Protector
416 picks · 499 bans
Mirana
377 picks · 371 bans
Snapfire
354 picks · 188 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 759 bans
Clockwerk
310 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 65%
Hero pool strength62% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Limit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:24
Big Brain 42%Limit 58%
The model gave 58% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 28:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaManic
SpectreXm
Tinyblessing
Death ProphetSrf
Keeper of the LightMolasses
Dragon KnightEcho
Treant ProtectorTz.
TuskYds
Rikimarblue
SilencerVictoria
Game 2prediction correct6:20
Big Brain 42%Limit 58%
The model gave 58% on Limit — the game was taken by Limit in 14:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmothermarblue
TimbersawXm
Shadow FiendManic
Nature's ProphetSrf
Monkey Kingblessing
Ember SpiritEcho
MarciMolasses
TuskYds
Treant ProtectorTz.
LichVictoria
Model check result
Model favoriteLimit · 65%
Series resultLimit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2