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BTS Pro Series Season 14: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
5RATFORCESTAFFloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Cr1t- · 10 games
90%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Arteezy · 10 games
80%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 9 games
67%
Sven
Svensignature
Fly · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Abed · 9 games
78%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Nightfall · 7 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Abed · 7 games
71%

5RATFORCESTAFF

Jakiro
Jakiro
albinozebra · 35 games
57%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Speeed · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Speeed · 11 games
45%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
dnm · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 11 games
45%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
albinozebra · 11 games
73%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
dnm · 10 games
80%
Silencer
Silencer
albinozebra · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
600 picks · 391 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 518 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
522 picks · 430 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
415 picks · 493 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
376 picks · 370 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
352 picks · 187 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
312 picks · 758 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
307 picks · 203 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct54:15
Shopify Rebellion 65%5RATFORCESTAFF 35%
The model gave 65% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarciArteezy
53% · 273 games49% · 198 games
Nature's Prophetdnm
Nature's Prophet
Batrider
BatriderAbed
56% · 232 games44% · 165 games
TimbersawSpeeed
Timbersaw
Enigma
EnigmaSabeRLight-
55% · 200 games48% · 322 games
Pangolierred2
Pangolier
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCr1t-
56% · 46 games49% · 238 games
UndyingMoOz
Undying
Rubick
RubickFly
47% · 355 games44% · 183 games
Silenceralbinozebra
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed17:39
Shopify Rebellion 63%5RATFORCESTAFF 37%
The model gave 63% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by 5RATFORCESTAFF in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
48% · 67 games50% · 194 games
Nature's Prophetdnm
Nature's Prophet
Marci
MarciArteezy
48% · 344 games55% · 289 games
Pangolierred2
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderAbed
52% · 241 game52% · 316 games
Death ProphetSpeeed
Death Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCr1t-
41% · 83 games53% · 210 games
Undyingalbinozebra
Undying
Rubick
RubickFly
44% · 383 games57% · 109 games
Nyx AssassinMoOz
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct36:14
Shopify Rebellion 64%5RATFORCESTAFF 36%
The model gave 64% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendArteezy
51% · 92 games48% · 207 games
Nature's Prophetdnm
Nature's Prophet
Tidehunter
TidehunterSabeRLight-
57% · 67 games48% · 143 games
Queen of Painred2
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderAbed
52% · 172 games50% · 195 games
EnigmaSpeeed
Enigma
Rubick
RubickCr1t-
44% · 311 games45% · 174 games
Silenceralbinozebra
Silencer
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
53% · 169 games54% · 92 games
RikiMoOz
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 73%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3