Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Water Rune Enjoyers
Enigmasignature
BliNcc · 13 games
Rubick
Mary_y · 13 games
Tiny
Stojkov · 13 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Mary_y · 12 games
Phoenix
Mary_y · 12 games
Razorsignature
BliNcc · 10 games
Disruptor
Mary_y · 9 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
600 picks · 391 bans
Tusk
533 picks · 518 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 430 bans
Treant Protector
414 picks · 493 bans
Mirana
376 picks · 369 bans
Snapfire
352 picks · 187 bans
Ember Spirit
312 picks · 758 bans
Clockwerk
307 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:5
Alliance 82%Water Rune Enjoyers 18%
The model gave 82% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 27:39.
Game 2prediction correct29:13
Alliance 82%Water Rune Enjoyers 18%
The model gave 82% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 35:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 82%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2