Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ancient Tribeloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Ancient Tribe
Mirana
LeBronDota · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 12 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 11 games
Leshracsignature
MTD · 9 games
Tiny
Alexxo · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 8 games
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 7 games
Enigmaoften banned
Davai · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
598 picks · 392 bans
Tusk
533 picks · 519 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 431 bans
Treant Protector
414 picks · 491 bans
Mirana
377 picks · 369 bans
Snapfire
351 picks · 186 bans
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 758 bans
Clockwerk
307 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 31%
Hero pool strength51% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:40
Monaspa 77%Ancient Tribe 23%
The model gave 77% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 43:12.
Game 2prediction missed52:24
Monaspa 77%Ancient Tribe 23%
The model gave 77% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 45:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 77%
Series resultMonaspa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2