BTS Pro Series Season 14: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Polaris Esports
Marcisignature
Boomy · 15 games
Linasignature
Mac · 13 games
Lichsignature
cml · 12 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 11 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 9 games
Rikisignature
Jing · 9 games
Tusksignature
Bok · 9 games
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
596 picks · 390 bans
Tusk
533 picks · 518 bans
Tiny
524 picks · 430 bans
Treant Protector
414 picks · 490 bans
Mirana
379 picks · 369 bans
Snapfire
348 picks · 185 bans
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 756 bans
Clockwerk
307 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 74%
Hero pool strength61% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
Fnatic 41%Polaris Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 37:52.
Game 2prediction correct43:27
Fnatic 41%Polaris Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 47:05.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 59%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2