Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Paradox Esportsloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dreamerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Paradox Esports
Primal Beastoften banned
Lissex · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Benny · 2 games
Tiny
Pamplona · 2 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
CHAAANNN · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
Arms · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Benny · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
591 picks · 386 bans
Tusk
528 picks · 517 bans
Tiny
521 picks · 428 bans
Treant Protector
410 picks · 479 bans
Mirana
375 picks · 364 bans
Snapfire
344 picks · 183 bans
Ember Spirit
308 picks · 749 bans
Clockwerk
307 picks · 200 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Dreamers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Dreamers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:18
Paradox Esports 44%Dreamers 56%
The model gave 56% on Dreamers — the game was taken by Dreamers in 37:14.
Game 2prediction correct20:34
Paradox Esports 44%Dreamers 56%
The model gave 56% on Dreamers — the game was taken by Dreamers in 35:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteDreamers · 56%
Series resultDreamers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2