Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
cybercatswin 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
X3loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
cybercats
Clockwerk
Hduo · 16 games
Dazzlesignature
Hduo · 15 games
Hoodwink
Fezor · 15 games
Lycanoften banned
DkFogas · 12 games
Marcioften banned
Hduo · 12 games
Visageoften banned
DkFogas · 12 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Egor · 11 games
Enigmaoften banned
DkFogas · 10 games
X3
Tiny
alone · 29 games
Marcioften banned
velheor · 25 games
Hoodwink
alone · 24 games
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 19 games
Tusk
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
Linaoften banned
nesfeer · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
584 picks · 385 bans
Tusk
526 picks · 515 bans
Tiny
521 picks · 427 bans
Treant Protector
404 picks · 475 bans
Mirana
373 picks · 361 bans
Snapfire
342 picks · 179 bans
Clockwerk
307 picks · 198 bans
Ember Spirit
305 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% X3
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:25
cybercats 47%X3 53%
The model gave 53% on X3 — the game was taken by cybercats in 55:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetAlberkaaa
Morphlingnesfeer
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Magnuszenica
Death ProphetfortniteMan
Hoodwinkjesv
Tinyalone
Treant Protectorforcemajor
Undyingdark
Game 2prediction missed37:37
cybercats 45%X3 55%
The model gave 55% on X3 — the game was taken by cybercats in 1:15:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomzenica
TimbersawfortniteMan
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Hoodwinkjesv
Faceless Voidnesfeer
Rubickforcemajor
Miranaalone
Naga SirenAlberkaaa
Treant Protectordark
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 58%
Series resultcybercats 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2