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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Penguins Squadwin 2:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fart Studiosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Penguins Squad

Mars
Marsoften banned
Rabish · 3 games
33%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Crawler · 3 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Satoshi- · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Snow- · 2 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Satoshi- · 2 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Crawler · 2 games
0%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ifrit · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Ifrit · 2 games
0%

Fart Studios

Lina
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Newsham · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Sonic · 6 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sonic · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
Newsham · 5 games
60%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
BSJ · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Newsham · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
573 picks · 384 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
519 picks · 510 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 428 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
399 picks · 466 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
371 picks · 358 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
338 picks · 178 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
306 picks · 195 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 734 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:19
Penguins Squad 38%Fart Studios 62%
The model gave 62% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Penguins Squad in 36:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSnow-
47% · 80 games49% · 69 games
Nature's ProphetBSJ
Nature's Prophet
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSatoshi-
54% · 190 games41% · 48 games
Queen of PainiAnnihilate
Queen of Pain
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCrawler
52% · 69 games53% · 82 games
MarsJenkins
Mars
Silencer
SilencerIfrit
51% · 175 games49% · 138 games
RubickNewsham
Rubick
51% · 177 games
TinySonic
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct15:40
Penguins Squad 36%Fart Studios 64%
The model gave 64% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 29:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSnow-
36% · 58 games56% · 89 games
Naga SirenBSJ
Naga Siren
Lycan
LycanSatoshi-
52% · 79 games50% · 213 games
Ember SpiritiAnnihilate
Ember Spirit
Tusk
TuskCrawler
46% · 254 games61% · 40 games
Dark SeerJenkins
Dark Seer
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenIfrit
46% · 151 game59% · 75 games
RikiNewsham
Riki
52% · 125 games
SilencerSonic
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed45:36
Penguins Squad 40%Fart Studios 60%
The model gave 60% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Penguins Squad in 51:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreSnow-
49% · 47 games56% · 32 games
LifestealerBSJ
Lifestealer
Batrider
BatriderSatoshi-
48% · 163 games47% · 75 games
PuckiAnnihilate
Puck
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCrawler
60% · 26 games56% · 22 games
MagnusJenkins
Magnus
Silencer
SilencerIfrit
49% · 134 games48% · 147 games
RubickNewsham
Rubick
49% · 94 games
Crystal MaidenSonic
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 72%
Series resultPenguins Squad 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3