BTS Pro Series Season 14: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Ravenswin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ravens
Rubick
d1smar · 14 games
Tiny
d1smar · 12 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Cara · 11 games
Visagesignature
Benjaz · 11 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Benjaz · 10 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
DaaD- · 8 games
Snapfire
d1smar · 8 games
Infinity Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 10 games
Snapfire
Genek · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
mini-` · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Genek · 8 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Prada · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Nuages · 7 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Leostyle · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
573 picks · 381 bans
Tusk
517 picks · 510 bans
Tiny
510 picks · 428 bans
Treant Protector
398 picks · 464 bans
Mirana
369 picks · 358 bans
Snapfire
337 picks · 176 bans
Clockwerk
306 picks · 194 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 734 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 37%
Hero pool strength52% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total50% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:34
Ravens 50%Infinity Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 42:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyPiPi
Monkey KingDaaD-
LinaDM
SnapfireLeostyle
Dragon KnightBenjaz
Death ProphetOscar
MiranaDemon
TuskGenek
Treant ProtectorCara
DisruptorPrada
Game 2prediction correct31:32
Ravens 49%Infinity Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 40:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingPakazs
DoomDaaD-
BeastmasterBenjaz
LeshracLeostyle
TinyPiPi
Death ProphetOscar
MiranaDemon
Primal BeastGenek
Crystal MaidenCara
DisruptorPrada
Game 3prediction correct30:16
Ravens 51%Infinity Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Ravens — the game was taken by Ravens in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenPakazs
Chaos KnightDaaD-
ZeusPiPi
Shadow FiendLeostyle
Death ProphetBenjaz
Primal BeastOscar
TuskDemon
TinyGenek
Crystal MaidenCara
EnchantressPrada
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 50%
Series resultRavens 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3