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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CDUB Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Eternity

Snapfire
Snapfire
Moonlight · 5 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
islA · 3 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Aretes · 3 games
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
CarJua · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Aretes · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Moonlight · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skyward · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
blessed kid · 2 games
0%

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 11 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
islA · 6 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 5 games
60%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 5 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 5 games
20%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sanctified · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sanctified · 4 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Mark · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
569 picks · 375 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 505 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
505 picks · 428 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
395 picks · 457 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
368 picks · 355 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
336 picks · 174 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
303 picks · 191 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
300 picks · 730 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 60%
Hero pool strength66% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:29
Eternity 38%CDUB Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 29:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCarJua
41% · 121 game52% · 257 games
PangolierMark
Pangolier
Kunkka
Kunkkablessed kid
46% · 127 games56% · 179 games
LinaDouble King
Lina
Lycan
LycanEzekiel
58% · 93 games50% · 67 games
BroodmotherislA
Broodmother
Enchantress
EnchantressAretes
49% · 151 game53% · 145 games
Skywrath MageAfrOmoush
Skywrath Mage
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMoonlight
42% · 211 games52% · 55 games
SvenSanctified
Sven
Game 2prediction correct7:26
Eternity 38%CDUB Esports 62%
The model gave 62% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 22:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightblessed kid
53% · 133 games56% · 92 games
UrsaDouble King
Ursa
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCarJua
45% · 84 games50% · 140 games
LeshracMark
Leshrac
Mars
MarsEzekiel
50% · 226 games48% · 133 games
BroodmotherislA
Broodmother
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMoonlight
61% · 51 game47% · 212 games
RubickAfrOmoush
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAretes
45% · 233 games48% · 150 games
Treant ProtectorSanctified
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 68%
Series resultCDUB Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2