BTS Pro Series Season 14: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Tusk
Gunnar · 13 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moo · 9 games
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 9 games
Miranasignature
ZfreeK · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Moo · 6 games
Tinysignature
Gunnar · 6 games
Vipersignature
Moo · 6 games
Chenoften banned
Husky · 5 games
Infinity Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 9 games
Snapfire
Genek · 9 games
Morphlingsignature
mini-` · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Genek · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Nuages · 7 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Nuages · 7 games
Tusk
Genek · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
554 picks · 367 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 501 bans
Tiny
500 picks · 427 bans
Treant Protector
380 picks · 453 bans
Mirana
364 picks · 356 bans
Snapfire
332 picks · 170 bans
Clockwerk
296 picks · 186 bans
Ember Spirit
295 picks · 718 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:11
nouns 60%Infinity Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 28:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYamSun
TidehunterOscar
BatriderGunnar
Monkey KingDaaD-
BroodmotherMoo
PangolierLeostyle
Skywrath MageLelis
ZeusGenek
Treant ProtectorHusky
Crystal MaidenPrada
Game 2prediction correct33:18
nouns 61%Infinity Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 44:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaYamSun
Shadow FiendDaaD-
InvokerGunnar
Ember SpiritLeostyle
Dark SeerMoo
UndyingOscar
RubickLelis
SnapfireGenek
SvenHusky
Treant ProtectorPrada
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 69%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2