Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspaloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
D2 Hustlerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
552 picks · 364 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 499 bans
Tiny
500 picks · 427 bans
Treant Protector
376 picks · 453 bans
Mirana
362 picks · 356 bans
Snapfire
329 picks · 170 bans
Clockwerk
295 picks · 186 bans
Ember Spirit
293 picks · 717 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Monaspa
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:22
Monaspa 56%D2 Hustlers 44%
The model gave 56% on Monaspa — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 39:53.
Game 2prediction missed37:42
Monaspa 56%D2 Hustlers 44%
The model gave 56% on Monaspa — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 50:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 56%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2