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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
IVYwin 2:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ancient Tribeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 26 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 21 game
57%
Tusk
Tusk
Qupe · 19 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Qupe · 16 games
69%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mo13ei · 13 games
23%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Mo13ei · 13 games
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
jmn- · 12 games
33%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 11 games
55%

Ancient Tribe

Mirana
Mirana
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 10 games
30%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MTD · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tiny
Alexxo · 8 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
LeBronDota · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Davai · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
549 picks · 361 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 497 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
496 picks · 427 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
375 picks · 451 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
358 picks · 355 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
326 picks · 169 bans
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
293 picks · 185 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 714 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:11
IVY 58%Ancient Tribe 42%
The model gave 58% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 35:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
Miranapio65
55% · 344 games49% · 200 games
Nature's Prophetlil pleb
Nature's Prophet
Puck
PuckMo13ei
58% · 300 games51% · 386 games
Death ProphetMTD
Death Prophet
Broodmother
BroodmotherOwnedMe
50% · 147 games47% · 387 games
MarsmeLes
Mars
Phoenix
Phoenixjmn-
51% · 179 games45% · 439 games
SnapfireHeaven
Snapfire
Tiny
TinyQupe
49% · 797 games45% · 355 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed12:29
IVY 56%Ancient Tribe 44%
The model gave 56% on IVY — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 36:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMo13ei
41% · 284 games46% · 151 game
Medusalil pleb
Medusa
Luna
Lunapio65
44% · 54 games58% · 220 games
LeshracMTD
Leshrac
Enigma
EnigmaOwnedMe
55% · 203 games54% · 64 games
Centaur WarrunnermeLes
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
Chenjmn-
56% · 75 games49% · 419 games
RubickHeaven
Rubick
Tiny
TinyQupe
49% · 591 game48% · 353 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct27:12
IVY 59%Ancient Tribe 41%
The model gave 59% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 34:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracpio65
57% · 213 games44% · 171 game
Terrorbladelil pleb
Terrorblade
Tusk
TuskMo13ei
49% · 404 games45% · 205 games
Primal BeastMTD
Primal Beast
Broodmother
BroodmotherOwnedMe
56% · 117 games53% · 155 games
EnigmameLes
Enigma
Mirana
MiranaQupe
53% · 314 games44% · 125 games
PhoenixLeBronDota
Phoenix
Silencer
Silencerjmn-
47% · 174 games51% · 566 games
TinyHeaven
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 65%
Series resultIVY 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3