Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Mystiquewin 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Cloudloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Mystique
Shadow Fiendoften banned
White丶Album · 4 games
Dragon Knight
zone- · 3 games
Marcioften banned
Victoria · 3 games
Mirana
Drink · 3 games
Rubick
Drink · 3 games
Clockwerk
rayy · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Nj · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
GodKing · 2 games
Team Cloud
Tusk
mercy · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Stariff · 3 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Stariff · 2 games
Dazzle
QYQX · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dust · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 2 games
Linaoften banned
白也 · 2 games
Marcioften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
535 picks · 358 bans
Tusk
503 picks · 490 bans
Tiny
488 picks · 424 bans
Treant Protector
371 picks · 442 bans
Mirana
355 picks · 348 bans
Snapfire
321 picks · 165 bans
Clockwerk
287 picks · 181 bans
Ember Spirit
287 picks · 706 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 29%
Hero pool strength56% Team Mystique
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Cloud
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:12
Team Mystique 47%Team Cloud 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Cloud — the game was taken by Team Mystique in 38:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerLin
Faceless Void1ce limit
Leshraczone-
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
MarciNj
Dark Seercsj
RubickDrink
Tuskmercy
Svenrayy
Crystal MaidenStariff
Game 2prediction correct11:27
Team Mystique 48%Team Cloud 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Cloud — the game was taken by Team Cloud in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomNj
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
Pangolierzone-
Morphling1ce limit
SlarkLin
Broodmothercsj
RubickDrink
Shadow Shamanmercy
Legion Commanderrayy
DawnbreakerStariff
Game 3prediction missed35:16
Team Mystique 46%Team Cloud 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Cloud — the game was taken by Team Mystique in 40:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendzone-
ZeusButterflyEffect
PudgeLin
Spectre1ce limit
BeastmasterNj
Death Prophetcsj
RubickDrink
UndyingStariff
Snapfirerayy
Earth Spiritmercy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Cloud · 53%
Series resultTeam Mystique 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3