Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
XERXIAwin 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Atlantisloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Atlantis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
535 picks · 358 bans
Tusk
503 picks · 490 bans
Tiny
488 picks · 424 bans
Treant Protector
371 picks · 442 bans
Mirana
355 picks · 348 bans
Snapfire
321 picks · 165 bans
Clockwerk
287 picks · 181 bans
Ember Spirit
287 picks · 706 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% XERXIA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% XERXIA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:21
XERXIA 69%Atlantis 31%
The model gave 69% on XERXIA — the game was taken by Atlantis in 25:32.
Game 2prediction missed12:33
XERXIA 69%Atlantis 31%
The model gave 69% on XERXIA — the game was taken by Atlantis in 24:35.
Game 3prediction missed21:42
XERXIA 69%Atlantis 31%
The model gave 69% on XERXIA — the game was taken by Atlantis in 31:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteXERXIA · 69%
Series resultXERXIA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3