Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChampwin 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
HF
Tiny
nicky`cool · 10 games
Tusk
toshiyb · 8 games
Lycanoften banned
Actor · 7 games
Techiessignature
weebian · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Mastery · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 6 games
Mirana
SOhY · 6 games
Slarkoften banned
xannii · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
532 picks · 357 bans
Tusk
502 picks · 487 bans
Tiny
486 picks · 425 bans
Treant Protector
371 picks · 436 bans
Mirana
355 picks · 346 bans
Snapfire
319 picks · 164 bans
Ember Spirit
288 picks · 701 bans
Clockwerk
285 picks · 178 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:8
PuckChamp 79%HF 21%
The model gave 79% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by HF in 25:47.
Game 2prediction missed35:31
PuckChamp 79%HF 21%
The model gave 79% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by HF in 47:50.
Game 3prediction missed30:14
PuckChamp 79%HF 21%
The model gave 79% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by HF in 32:42.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 79%
Series resultPuckChamp 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3