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BTS Pro Series Season 14: ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 20 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fbz · 17 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Yopaj · 17 games
41%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Yopaj · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Tims · 14 games
43%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Skem · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Tims · 12 games
33%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%

Polaris Esports

Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 11 games
73%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boomy · 11 games
82%
Lich
Lichsignature
Eyyou · 9 games
67%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
cml · 7 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Bok · 7 games
100%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boomy · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
529 picks · 358 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 488 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
485 picks · 426 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
371 picks · 433 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
354 picks · 347 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
319 picks · 161 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
289 picks · 698 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
282 picks · 178 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 73%
Hero pool strength61% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total61% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
BOOM Esports 54%Polaris Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNatsumi
56% · 75 games44% · 164 games
DoomBok
Doom
Tusk
TuskYopaj
52% · 315 games47% · 242 games
MarciAkashi
Marci
Monkey King
Monkey KingFbz
53% · 203 games51% · 123 games
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Mirana
MiranaXepher
57% · 235 games45% · 340 games
RubickJing
Rubick
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
49% · 112 games48% · 71 game
Dark Willowcml
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct23:7
BOOM Esports 52%Polaris Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 28:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenNatsumi
57% · 143 games50% · 147 games
MorphlingAkashi
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
45% · 465 games52% · 545 games
TinyMac
Tiny
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFbz
46% · 77 games54% · 303 games
TuskBok
Tusk
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightXepher
45% · 243 games50% · 293 games
MiranaJing
Mirana
Rubick
RubickxNova
49% · 474 games54% · 114 games
Pugnacml
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 61%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2