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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
X3loss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
RISE Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Tiny
Tiny
alone · 27 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
alone · 23 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
52%
Marci
Marcioften banned
velheor · 22 games
55%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 19 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 18 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
53%
Lina
Linaoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
50%

RISE Esports

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
527 picks · 355 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
497 picks · 488 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
483 picks · 427 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
370 picks · 433 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
354 picks · 347 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
318 picks · 160 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
287 picks · 695 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
281 picks · 177 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% X3
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% X3
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:38
X3 62%RISE Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on X3 — the game was taken by RISE Esports in 34:31.
Game 2prediction correct32:14
X3 62%RISE Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on X3 — the game was taken by X3 in 49:42.
Game 3prediction missed24:33
X3 62%RISE Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on X3 — the game was taken by RISE Esports in 38:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteX3 · 62%
Series resultRISE Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3