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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Disillusionwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Mystiqueloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Disillusion

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
天命 · 2 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sj · 2 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Eren · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
zc · 2 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Sj · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
zc · 1 game
0%

Team Mystique

Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
White丶Album · 4 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
zone- · 3 games
67%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Victoria · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
Drink · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
XCJ · 2 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Nj · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
GodKing · 2 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Nj · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
522 picks · 355 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
494 picks · 487 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
481 picks · 426 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
367 picks · 429 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
351 picks · 345 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 160 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
286 picks · 690 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
277 picks · 177 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Team Disillusion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Team Disillusion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:30
Team Disillusion 54%Team Mystique 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 46:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherKilla
53% · 144 games45% · 55 games
Leshraczone-
Leshrac
Clockwerk
ClockwerkEren
59% · 236 games49% · 34 games
SlarkLin
Slark
42% · 153 games
SnapfireNj
Snapfire
43% · 111 games
RubickDrink
Rubick
40% · 27 games
Legion Commanderrayy
Legion Commander
Game 2prediction correct52:35
Team Disillusion 53%Team Mystique 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 50:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomKilla
45% · 142 games53% · 20 games
Drow RangerLin
Drow Ranger
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritEren
45% · 71 gamelittle data
AxeNj
Axe
54% · 80 games
Tuskzone-
Tusk
56% · 70 games
RubickDrink
Rubick
58% · 43 games
Undyingrayy
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Disillusion · 55%
Series resultTeam Disillusion 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2