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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternityloss 0:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Feltwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Eternity

Rubick
Rubick
Aretes · 3 games
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
CarJua · 2 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Moonlight · 2 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
blessed kid · 2 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Moonlight · 2 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
rayy · 2 games
0%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Skyward · 1 game
0%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
CarJua · 1 game
0%

Felt

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
paradise' · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
The Warden · 5 games
20%
Tiny
Tiny
Chen · 5 games
20%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Fayde · 4 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Chen · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
solji · 4 games
25%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Fayde · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
519 picks · 354 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 483 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
478 picks · 424 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
365 picks · 425 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
350 picks · 342 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
312 picks · 160 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
280 picks · 689 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
271 picks · 177 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Felt
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Felt
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:31
Eternity 49%Felt 51%
The model gave 51% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCarJua
50% · 117 games51% · 179 games
Nature's ProphetBerna
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritblessed kid
45% · 290 games53% · 214 games
Leshracsolji
Leshrac
Snapfire
SnapfireMoonlight
47% · 341 game47% · 150 games
TidehunterFayde
Tidehunter
Mars
MarsEzekiel
52% · 281 game54% · 305 games
ClockwerkChen
Clockwerk
Silencer
SilencerAretes
50% · 123 games51% · 304 games
HoodwinkShoe
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct21:32
Eternity 50%Felt 50%
The model gave 50% on Felt — the game was taken by Felt in 30:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetEzekiel
50% · 146 games55% · 62 games
Troll WarlordBerna
Troll Warlord
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerCarJua
50% · 54 games49% · 167 games
BeastmasterFayde
Beastmaster
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painblessed kid
39% · 110 games54% · 235 games
Pangoliersolji
Pangolier
Silencer
SilencerAretes
49% · 147 games53% · 137 games
Crystal MaidenShoe
Crystal Maiden
Tusk
TuskMoonlight
50% · 354 games52% · 210 games
ClockwerkChen
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteFelt · 53%
Series resultFelt 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2