Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Water Rune Enjoyerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
Marcioften banned
Gorgc · 3 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
bengan · 3 games
Tusk
ZipZaper · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
bengan · 3 games
Hoodwink
Pablo · 2 games
Keeper of the Light
w33 · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
Gorgc · 2 games
Snapfire
bengan · 2 games
Water Rune Enjoyers
Tiny
Stojkov · 14 games
Rubick
Mary_y · 13 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Mary_y · 12 games
Enigmasignature
BliNcc · 11 games
Phoenix
Mary_y · 10 games
Snapfire
Mary_y · 10 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 9 games
Razoroften banned
BliNcc · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
518 picks · 352 bans
Tusk
489 picks · 481 bans
Tiny
476 picks · 422 bans
Treant Protector
363 picks · 422 bans
Mirana
350 picks · 342 bans
Snapfire
308 picks · 160 bans
Ember Spirit
280 picks · 687 bans
Pangolier
269 picks · 635 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Water Rune Enjoyers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:31
Team Bald Reborn 55%Water Rune Enjoyers 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 23:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreGorgc
TerrorbladePalantimos
Tuskw33
Keeper of the LightStojkov
SnapfireZipZaper
EnigmaBliNcc
RubickPablo
Clockwerky0nd
Treant Protectorbengan
PhoenixMary_y
Game 2prediction correct54:24
Team Bald Reborn 54%Water Rune Enjoyers 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 53:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreGorgc
Faceless VoidPalantimos
Keeper of the Lightw33
EnigmaBliNcc
SnapfireZipZaper
BatriderStojkov
Silencerbengan
DisruptorMary_y
TuskPablo
Clockwerky0nd
Game 3prediction missed24:40
Team Bald Reborn 54%Water Rune Enjoyers 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 51:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenGorgc
RazorPalantimos
Windrangerw33
Death ProphetBliNcc
PangolierZipZaper
TuskStojkov
SnapfirePablo
PhoenixMary_y
Silencerbengan
Clockwerky0nd
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 59%
Series resultWater Rune Enjoyers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3