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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:1
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ancient Tribeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

Ancient Tribe

Mirana
Mirana
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 9 games
33%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MTD · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
Alexxo · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
LeBronDota · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Davai · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
516 picks · 352 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
489 picks · 481 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
475 picks · 422 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
363 picks · 420 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
350 picks · 341 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
308 picks · 160 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
280 picks · 686 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
268 picks · 176 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:27
Alliance 78%Ancient Tribe 22%
The model gave 78% on Alliance — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 51:23.
Game 2prediction correct42:16
Alliance 78%Ancient Tribe 22%
The model gave 78% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 35:57.
Game 3prediction correct35:16
Alliance 78%Ancient Tribe 22%
The model gave 78% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 35:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 78%
Series resultAlliance 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3