Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanwin 2:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Flowloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
UD Vessuwan
Snapfire
Jhocam · 7 games
Rubick
boombell · 6 games
Tiny
Beebie · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
boombell · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Beebie · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
LionaX · 5 games
Tusk
boombell · 5 games
Doomoften banned
tnt · 4 games
Team Flow
Rubick
czy · 3 games
Tiny
TrazaM · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 2 games
Bristleback
Unknown- · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mercury · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 2 games
Lion
czy · 2 games
Marcioften banned
TrazaM · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
510 picks · 343 bans
Tusk
487 picks · 480 bans
Tiny
475 picks · 419 bans
Treant Protector
357 picks · 413 bans
Mirana
350 picks · 340 bans
Snapfire
304 picks · 159 bans
Ember Spirit
275 picks · 687 bans
Pangolier
266 picks · 630 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Team Flow
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Flow
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:17
UD Vessuwan 50%Team Flow 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Flow — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 36:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidKNP
Wraith KingUnknown-
Ember SpiritBeebie
TinyMercury
Rubickboombell
TidehunterNevermine
Treant ProtectorLionaX
Lionczy
50% · 159 games
Crystal MaidenTrazaM
Game 2prediction missed22:5
UD Vessuwan 47%Team Flow 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Flow — the game was taken by UD Vessuwan in 44:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanKNP
MorphlingUnknown-
Miranaboombell
Ember SpiritMercury
Dragon KnightBeebie
BeastmasterNevermine
Crystal MaidenLionaX
Snapfireczy
50% · 101 game
SilencerTrazaM
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Flow · 54%
Series resultUD Vessuwan 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2