Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Paradox Esportswin 2:1series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Mad Kingsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Paradox Esports
Primal Beastoften banned
Lissex · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Lissex · 2 games
Tiny
Pamplona · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Benny · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Lissex · 1 game
Ogre Magi
555k · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Mad Kings
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
Earthshaker
sl4d1n- · 10 games
Rubick
Thiolicor · 10 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 9 games
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 9 games
Silencer
Gardick · 9 games
Tiny
sl4d1n- · 9 games
Weaveroften banned
ArzenT · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
509 picks · 341 bans
Tusk
486 picks · 479 bans
Tiny
475 picks · 417 bans
Treant Protector
354 picks · 412 bans
Mirana
349 picks · 340 bans
Snapfire
303 picks · 157 bans
Ember Spirit
275 picks · 685 bans
Pangolier
266 picks · 628 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 71%
Hero pool strength58% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:37
Paradox Esports 33%Mad Kings 67%
The model gave 67% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 30:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinArms
SnapfireArzenT
MarciLissex
DawnbreakerCHAAANNN
Game 2prediction missed28:21
Paradox Esports 33%Mad Kings 67%
The model gave 67% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Paradox Esports in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverArms
BeastmasterArzenT
TidehunterLissex
Treant ProtectorCHAAANNN
Game 3prediction missed50:32
Paradox Esports 31%Mad Kings 69%
The model gave 69% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Paradox Esports in 59:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorArms
MiranaArzenT
Primal BeastLissex
Treant ProtectorCHAAANNN
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 81%
Series resultParadox Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3