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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Runeswin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ukumariloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Runes

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Nuages · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Nuages · 3 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Jupiter · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
100%

Ukumari

Undying
Undyingsignature
Gardick · 20 games
65%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 18 games
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
56%
Marci
Marcisignature
Thiolicor · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Vitaly · 16 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lumière · 15 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Thiolicor · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
506 picks · 340 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
485 picks · 476 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
473 picks · 416 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
353 picks · 409 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
348 picks · 339 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
301 picks · 157 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
275 picks · 683 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
265 picks · 628 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Ukumari
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% No Runes
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:53
No Runes 58%Ukumari 42%
The model gave 58% on No Runes — the game was taken by Ukumari in 41:38.
Game 2prediction missed17:34
No Runes 58%Ukumari 42%
The model gave 58% on No Runes — the game was taken by Ukumari in 32:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Runes · 58%
Series resultNo Runes 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2