BTS Pro Series Season 14: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Reaperwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
UD Vessuwan
Rubick
boombell · 6 games
Snapfire
Jhocam · 6 games
Tusk
boombell · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Meracle · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
AlaCrity · 3 games
Doomoften banned
tnt · 3 games
Dragon Knight
Beebie · 3 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
inYourdreaM · 3 games
Reaper
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Fearless · 1 game
Dragon Knight
Fearless · 1 game
Tiny
Fearless · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
502 picks · 337 bans
Tusk
483 picks · 473 bans
Tiny
471 picks · 415 bans
Mirana
346 picks · 338 bans
Treant Protector
345 picks · 398 bans
Snapfire
297 picks · 157 bans
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 679 bans
Pangolier
260 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 15%
Hero pool strength50% Reaper
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% UD Vessuwan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:39
UD Vessuwan 61%Reaper 39%
The model gave 61% on UD Vessuwan — the game was taken by Reaper in 38:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomboombell
PangolierFearless
TinyBeebie
SlarkKNP
SnapfireMyPro
Crystal MaidenLionaX
Game 2prediction missed18:39
UD Vessuwan 62%Reaper 38%
The model gave 62% on UD Vessuwan — the game was taken by Reaper in 36:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreKNP
Legion CommanderFearless
Death ProphetBeebie
Batriderboombell
TinyMyPro
Treant ProtectorLionaX
Model check result
Model favoriteUD Vessuwan · 74%
Series resultReaper 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2