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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Another NA Teamwin 2:1
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fart Studiosloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Another NA Team

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Lies · 6 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
FeelinG · 5 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Moonlight · 5 games
0%
Tiny
Tiny
Moonlight · 4 games
0%
Luna
Luna
Argius · 3 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Lies · 3 games
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
RRL · 3 games
0%
Bane
Bane
FeelinG · 2 games
0%

Fart Studios

Lina
Linasignature
iAnnihilate · 7 games
71%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
BSJ · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Newsham · 5 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Sonic · 4 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Newsham · 4 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Newsham · 4 games
75%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
Sonic · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
Newsham · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
497 picks · 336 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 469 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 415 bans
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
344 picks · 394 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
343 picks · 338 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
295 picks · 157 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
269 picks · 674 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
256 picks · 169 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 65%
Hero pool strength69% Fart Studios
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Fart Studios
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:30
Another NA Team 30%Fart Studios 70%
The model gave 70% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 51:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingArgius
49% · 220 games49% · 157 games
Nature's ProphetBSJ
Nature's Prophet
Leshrac
LeshracRRL
52% · 236 games46% · 336 games
PangolieriAnnihilate
Pangolier
Beastmaster
BeastmasterUSH
53% · 297 games51% · 132 games
Sand KingJenkins
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkThe Warden
46% · 380 games56% · 341 game
MiranaNewsham
Mirana
Tusk
TuskFeelinG
47% · 469 games50% · 636 games
TinySonic
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct25:37
Another NA Team 29%Fart Studios 71%
The model gave 71% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 46:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeArgius
51% · 155 games47% · 98 games
JuggernautBSJ
Juggernaut
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendRRL
44% · 105 games53% · 305 games
PangolieriAnnihilate
Pangolier
Mars
MarsUSH
54% · 256 games52% · 62 games
Dark SeerJenkins
Dark Seer
Snapfire
SnapfireThe Warden
44% · 289 games49% · 315 games
RubickNewsham
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerFeelinG
49% · 126 games55% · 151 game
DisruptorSonic
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed39:22
Another NA Team 29%Fart Studios 71%
The model gave 71% on Fart Studios — the game was taken by Another NA Team in 46:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenArgius
53% · 52 games47% · 87 games
Phantom AssassinBSJ
Phantom Assassin
Death Prophet
Death ProphetRRL
52% · 263 games51% · 348 games
PangolieriAnnihilate
Pangolier
Mars
MarsUSH
45% · 237 games56% · 54 games
MagnusJenkins
Magnus
Silencer
SilencerFeelinG
49% · 122 games48% · 352 games
RubickNewsham
Rubick
Tusk
TuskThe Warden
47% · 264 games53% · 97 games
PudgeSonic
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteFart Studios · 83%
Series resultAnother NA Team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3