?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
D2 Hustlerswin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ancient Tribeloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

D2 Hustlers

No games played over 6 months.

Ancient Tribe

Mirana
Mirana
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 9 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
Alexxo · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
LeBronDota · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Davai · 6 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MTD · 6 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
492 picks · 332 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 467 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 411 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
342 picks · 335 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
340 picks · 389 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
293 picks · 155 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
267 picks · 669 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 622 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:22
D2 Hustlers 69%Ancient Tribe 31%
The model gave 69% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 53:25.
Game 2prediction missed29:10
D2 Hustlers 69%Ancient Tribe 31%
The model gave 69% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 35:56.
Game 3prediction missed29:18
D2 Hustlers 69%Ancient Tribe 31%
The model gave 69% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 41:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 69%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3