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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Water Rune Enjoyers

Tiny
Tiny
Stojkov · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mary_y · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
y0nd · 10 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
BliNcc · 9 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 9 games
22%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Mary_y · 9 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Mary_y · 8 games
38%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 14 games
93%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 9 games
78%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 9 games
89%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 7 games
86%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
TA2000 · 7 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 7 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 7 games
100%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
489 picks · 331 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 467 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
468 picks · 411 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
343 picks · 335 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
339 picks · 388 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
292 picks · 156 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
265 picks · 668 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 621 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 86%
Hero pool strength65% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:32
Water Rune Enjoyers 26%PSG Quest 74%
The model gave 74% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 34:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingPalantimos
47% · 192 games50% · 82 games
Drow RangerTA2000
Drow Ranger
Lycan
LycanBliNcc
48% · 81 game47% · 141 game
BatriderNo!ob
Batrider
Leshrac
LeshracStojkov
56% · 189 games52% · 115 games
Primal BeastWuiter
Primal Beast
Techies
Techiesy0nd
46% · 51 game52% · 255 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorMary_y
55% · 220 games46% · 140 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Game 2prediction correct32:22
Water Rune Enjoyers 28%PSG Quest 72%
The model gave 72% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 50:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorPalantimos
46% · 100 games49% · 104 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Tusk
TuskStojkov
49% · 219 games52% · 174 games
LeshracNo!ob
Leshrac
Enigma
EnigmaBliNcc
57% · 116 games50% · 63 games
Centaur WarrunnerWuiter
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickMary_y
46% · 206 games54% · 79 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirity0nd
54% · 53 games46% · 274 games
ClockwerkKaori
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 85%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2