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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Myth Avenue Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Atlantisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Myth Avenue Gaming

Tusk
Tusksignature
Hishge · 13 games
85%
Mirana
Miranasignature
RR · 10 games
80%
Lina
Linasignature
xsilearn · 8 games
88%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
RR · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
zeal · 7 games
71%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Meracle · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Hishge · 6 games
83%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RR · 5 games
40%

Atlantis

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
485 picks · 330 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
480 picks · 465 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
467 picks · 410 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
340 picks · 335 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
337 picks · 384 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
291 picks · 154 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
264 picks · 666 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 621 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 33%
Hero pool strength62% Myth Avenue Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Myth Avenue Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:35
Myth Avenue Gaming 61%Atlantis 39%
The model gave 61% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 55:28.
Game 2prediction correct50:38
Myth Avenue Gaming 61%Atlantis 39%
The model gave 61% on Myth Avenue Gaming — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 52:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteMyth Avenue Gaming · 61%
Series resultMyth Avenue Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2