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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Flowloss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Flow

Rubick
Rubick
czy · 3 games
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nevermine · 2 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Unknown- · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 2 games
0%
Marci
Marcioften banned
TrazaM · 2 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
czy · 2 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
TrazaM · 2 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
0%

Polaris Esports

Marci
Marcisignature
Boomy · 11 games
82%
Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
33%
Lich
Lichsignature
Eyyou · 8 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Bok · 7 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Mac · 6 games
83%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boomy · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
484 picks · 329 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
480 picks · 464 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
466 picks · 409 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
340 picks · 333 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
337 picks · 384 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
291 picks · 154 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
264 picks · 665 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
254 picks · 620 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 69%
Hero pool strength58% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:33
Team Flow 36%Polaris Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 26:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomNevermine
45% · 112 games53% · 89 games
Nature's ProphetAkashi
Nature's Prophet
Lina
LinaUnknown-
53% · 179 games41% · 84 games
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMercury
60% · 76 games51% · 43 games
MagnusBok
Magnus
Lion
Lionczy
55% · 22 games51% · 228 games
RubickJing
Rubick
Undying
UndyingTrazaM
53% · 103 games41% · 48 games
Lichcml
Lich
Game 2prediction correct4:35
Team Flow 34%Polaris Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 24:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNevermine
49% · 151 game53% · 223 games
Nature's ProphetBok
Nature's Prophet
Morphling
MorphlingUnknown-
50% · 75 games49% · 111 games
Drow RangerAkashi
Drow Ranger
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMercury
48% · 162 games45% · 186 games
Void SpiritMac
Void Spirit
Tiny
Tinyczy
49% · 259 games51% · 62 games
Dark Willowcml
Dark Willow
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorTrazaM
61% · 7 games56% · 72 games
RikiJing
Riki
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 75%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2