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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ukumariloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Balrogswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ukumari

Undying
Undyingsignature
Gardick · 20 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
65%
Marci
Marcisignature
Thiolicor · 17 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Vitaly · 15 games
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lumière · 14 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
69%

Balrogs

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Demon · 8 games
75%
Tusk
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 5 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 4 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
ShakaLord · 4 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
ShakaLord · 4 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ShakaLord · 3 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Demon · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
481 picks · 328 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
478 picks · 463 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
463 picks · 409 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
340 picks · 331 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
334 picks · 383 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
291 picks · 152 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
262 picks · 664 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
253 picks · 619 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 67%
Hero pool strength55% Balrogs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Balrogs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:30
Ukumari 36%Balrogs 64%
The model gave 64% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 51:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidJP
47% · 125 games49% · 310 games
TerrorbladeDM
Terrorblade
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAlone
46% · 125 games56% · 234 games
LeshracÑengoflow KELOKE
Leshrac
Death Prophet
Death ProphetH1j4ck
48% · 347 games53% · 145 games
Lycandrakesh1t
Lycan
Tiny
TinyKiri
49% · 535 games46% · 421 game
RubickDemon
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkYor
54% · 231 game52% · 253 games
Treant ProtectorShakaLord
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct5:26
Ukumari 36%Balrogs 64%
The model gave 64% on Balrogs — the game was taken by Balrogs in 23:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenJP
69% · 63 games54% · 96 games
Templar AssassinDM
Templar Assassin
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetH1j4ck
45% · 189 games45% · 241 game
Ember SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
Ember Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracAlone
52% · 178 games42% · 230 games
Death Prophetdrakesh1t
Death Prophet
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionYor
48% · 58 games53% · 43 games
Earth SpiritDemon
Earth Spirit
Tusk
TuskKiri
49% · 316 games49% · 194 games
Treant ProtectorShakaLord
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteBalrogs · 76%
Series resultBalrogs 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2