Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Dreamersloss 0:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Qhaliwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Qhali
Broodmotheroften banned
Hermit · 3 games
Hoodwink
MonHty · 3 games
Elder Titan
Luis · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 2 games
Lycanoften banned
Hermit · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
MonHty · 2 games
Snapfire
MonHty · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Robo-Z · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
479 picks · 327 bans
Tusk
476 picks · 463 bans
Tiny
461 picks · 409 bans
Mirana
338 picks · 331 bans
Treant Protector
332 picks · 381 bans
Snapfire
291 picks · 152 bans
Ember Spirit
262 picks · 664 bans
Pangolier
253 picks · 619 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Dreamers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Dreamers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:12
Dreamers 68%Qhali 32%
The model gave 68% on Dreamers — the game was taken by Qhali in 38:05.
Game 2prediction missed39:10
Dreamers 68%Qhali 32%
The model gave 68% on Dreamers — the game was taken by Qhali in 32:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteDreamers · 68%
Series resultQhali 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2