?
arrow_backBack to match
Фиджитал игры · BO3
result vs prediction
Lucky Birdloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Matreshka Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lucky Bird

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 6 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
FrancisLee · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
BlackSoul · 6 games
17%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wij · 5 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Wij · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Yadomi · 4 games
25%

Matreshka Team

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
JANTER · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
egxrdemxn · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Lagoona · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Retsu · 2 games
0%
Silencer
Silencer
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Lagoona · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
478 picks · 315 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
470 picks · 460 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
458 picks · 406 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
335 picks · 331 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
326 picks · 378 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
288 picks · 148 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
262 picks · 653 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
253 picks · 613 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 62%
Hero pool strength61% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Matreshka Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:48
Lucky Bird 40%Matreshka Team 60%
The model gave 60% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 38:28.
Game 2prediction correct21:31
Lucky Bird 40%Matreshka Team 60%
The model gave 60% on Matreshka Team — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 38:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteMatreshka Team · 60%
Series resultMatreshka Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2