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BTS Pro Series Season 14: ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EHOMEloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Lina
Linasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boomy · 9 games
78%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Force · 9 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 8 games
63%
Lich
Lich
Eyyou · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Bok · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boomy · 6 games
83%
Omniknight
Omniknight
Eyyou · 5 games
60%

EHOME

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Lwwnb · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Night · 14 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
CatYou · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
Night · 9 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
xiaoyu154 · 8 games
13%
Mirana
Mirana
CatYou · 7 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
mks- · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Night · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
475 picks · 313 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 460 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 406 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
333 picks · 331 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
323 picks · 374 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
285 picks · 147 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
262 picks · 646 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
248 picks · 611 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:17
Polaris Esports 53%EHOME 47%
The model gave 53% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 31:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAkashi
56% · 115 games48% · 131 game
Terrorblademks-
Terrorblade
Kunkka
KunkkaMac
46% · 169 games58% · 167 games
Beastmasterxiaoyu154
Beastmaster
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerBok
48% · 133 games52% · 259 games
PangolierNight
Pangolier
Lich
Lichcml
40% · 62 games51% · 58 games
Shadow DemonCatYou
Shadow Demon
Marci
MarciJing
50% · 213 games49% · 77 games
DisruptorLwwnb
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct40:20
Polaris Esports 54%EHOME 46%
The model gave 54% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 27:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingAkashi
45% · 131 game56% · 206 games
Nature's Prophetmks-
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierMac
49% · 242 games45% · 161 game
ZeusNight
Zeus
Marci
MarciBok
52% · 356 games49% · 275 games
Dawnbreakerxiaoyu154
Dawnbreaker
Snapfire
SnapfireJing
48% · 287 games51% · 378 games
TuskCatYou
Tusk
Death Prophet
Death Prophetcml
53% · 230 games52% · 226 games
Crystal MaidenLwwnb
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 56%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2