Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainwin 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Disillusionloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Big Brain
Snapfire
Helios · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 2 games
Hoodwink
Hara · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Manic · 2 games
Omniknight
Hara · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
eGo · 2 games
Tiny
phoenix · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
eGo · 1 game
Team Disillusion
Dawnbreakeroften banned
天命 · 2 games
Hoodwink
Sj · 2 games
Marcioften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
zc · 2 games
Bane
Sj · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
zc · 1 game
Bristleback
Summer · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Summer · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
473 picks · 313 bans
Tusk
467 picks · 459 bans
Tiny
456 picks · 404 bans
Mirana
333 picks · 328 bans
Treant Protector
322 picks · 373 bans
Snapfire
283 picks · 146 bans
Ember Spirit
261 picks · 645 bans
Pangolier
247 picks · 609 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Big Brain
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Big Brain
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:42
Big Brain 58%Team Disillusion 42%
The model gave 58% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Team Disillusion in 1:01:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerManic
DoomKilla
Ember Spiritblessing
RubickEren
Death ProphetMolasses
Snapfiremarblue
TuskTz.
Game 2prediction correct44:26
Big Brain 57%Team Disillusion 43%
The model gave 57% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Big Brain in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaManic
Death ProphetKilla
BeastmasterMolasses
RikiEren
Marsblessing
Snapfiremarblue
ClockwerkTz.
Game 3prediction correct29:17
Big Brain 60%Team Disillusion 40%
The model gave 60% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Big Brain in 44:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreManic
Centaur WarrunnerKilla
Death ProphetMolasses
RubickEren
Pangolierblessing
Treant ProtectorTz.
Rikimarblue
Model check result
Model favoriteBig Brain · 65%
Series resultBig Brain 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3