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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Penguins Squadloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CDUB Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Penguins Squad

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Crawler · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Rabish · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 1 game
100%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Satoshi- · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Rabish · 1 game
100%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Snow- · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Ifrit · 1 game
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Snow- · 1 game
0%

CDUB Esports

Rubick
Rubicksignature
AfrOmoush · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
islA · 5 games
80%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Double King · 4 games
75%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Double King · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Mark · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sanctified · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Sanctified · 3 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Atoufix · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
464 picks · 309 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
462 picks · 453 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 403 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
330 picks · 328 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
318 picks · 366 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
280 picks · 143 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
256 picks · 639 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
240 picks · 607 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% CDUB Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% CDUB Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:29
Penguins Squad 44%CDUB Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 26:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSatoshi-
53% · 134 games59% · 105 games
LifestealerDouble King
Lifestealer
Morphling
MorphlingSnow-
51% · 159 games45% · 102 games
BroodmotherislA
Broodmother
Mars
MarsRabish
47% · 269 games47% · 274 games
Death ProphetMark
Death Prophet
Techies
TechiesCrawler
45% · 78 games49% · 270 games
RubickAfrOmoush
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorIfrit
50% · 238 games55% · 127 games
Crystal MaidenSanctified
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct13:35
Penguins Squad 42%CDUB Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on CDUB Esports — the game was taken by CDUB Esports in 28:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSatoshi-
52% · 231 game54% · 45 games
HuskarMark
Huskar
Pangolier
PangolierRabish
50% · 267 games49% · 189 games
DawnbreakerDouble King
Dawnbreaker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSnow-
46% · 288 games52% · 344 games
TuskislA
Tusk
Snapfire
SnapfireCrawler
50% · 303 games55% · 379 games
RubickAfrOmoush
Rubick
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiIfrit
44% · 58 games48% · 190 games
Crystal MaidenSanctified
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteCDUB Esports · 61%
Series resultCDUB Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2