Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutwin 2:0series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Penguins Squadloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Bristleback
Scourge McDuck · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
red2 · 5 games
Hoodwink
bgod · 5 games
Marcioften banned
bgod · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Lil_Nick · 4 games
Penguins Squad
Spirit Breaker
Crawler · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Satoshi- · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Rabish · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Rabish · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
Snow- · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Snow- · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Satoshi- · 1 game
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ifrit · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
451 picks · 449 bans
Rubick
450 picks · 300 bans
Tiny
438 picks · 399 bans
Mirana
325 picks · 325 bans
Treant Protector
301 picks · 355 bans
Snapfire
271 picks · 140 bans
Ember Spirit
248 picks · 620 bans
Pangolier
234 picks · 595 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 60%
Hero pool strength62% Penguins Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Penguins Squad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:13
The Cut 42%Penguins Squad 58%
The model gave 58% on Penguins Squad — the game was taken by The Cut in 33:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackScourge McDuck
MedusaSnow-
Death Prophethigh_shaggy
MarsRabish
Centaur WarrunnerChives
BroodmotherSatoshi-
Skywrath Magebgod
RubickCrawler
Silencerempyrean5
Spirit BreakerIfrit
Game 2prediction missed37:19
The Cut 44%Penguins Squad 56%
The model gave 56% on Penguins Squad — the game was taken by The Cut in 36:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetScourge McDuck
SlarkSatoshi-
Ember Spirithigh_shaggy
Queen of PainSnow-
Spirit BreakerChives
TuskRabish
Skywrath Magebgod
SnapfireCrawler
Treant Protectorempyrean5
PhoenixIfrit
Model check result
Model favoritePenguins Squad · 62%
Series resultThe Cut 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2