Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Monaspawin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Water Rune Enjoyers
Tiny
Stojkov · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Mary_y · 12 games
Enigmasignature
BliNcc · 9 games
Rubick
y0nd · 9 games
Snapfire
Mary_y · 9 games
Disruptor
Mary_y · 8 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 8 games
Linasignature
Stojkov · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
451 picks · 449 bans
Rubick
448 picks · 300 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 398 bans
Mirana
325 picks · 325 bans
Treant Protector
301 picks · 353 bans
Snapfire
271 picks · 140 bans
Ember Spirit
246 picks · 620 bans
Crystal Maiden
233 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Water Rune Enjoyers
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total73% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:34
Monaspa 73%Water Rune Enjoyers 27%
The model gave 73% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 31:44.
Game 2prediction missed40:17
Monaspa 73%Water Rune Enjoyers 27%
The model gave 73% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Water Rune Enjoyers in 34:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 73%
Series resultMonaspa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2