Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Bald Rebornloss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ancient Tribewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Bald Reborn
Undyingoften banned
bengan · 3 games
Hoodwink
Pablo · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Pablo · 2 games
Pudgeoften banned
Gorgc · 2 games
Visageoften banned
Excalibur · 2 games
Witch Doctor
bengan · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ZipZaper · 1 game
Chaos Knightoften banned
Gorgc · 1 game
Ancient Tribe
Miranaoften banned
LeBronDota · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 8 games
Tiny
Alexxo · 7 games
Crystal Maidensignature
LeBronDota · 6 games
Clockwerk
Handsken · 5 games
Enigmaoften banned
Davai · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
Mirage · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
449 picks · 447 bans
Rubick
448 picks · 296 bans
Tiny
434 picks · 398 bans
Mirana
325 picks · 325 bans
Treant Protector
298 picks · 351 bans
Snapfire
269 picks · 137 bans
Ember Spirit
246 picks · 616 bans
Crystal Maiden
233 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Bald Reborn
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:30
Team Bald Reborn 54%Ancient Tribe 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Team Bald Reborn in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreGorgc
Templar Assassinlil pleb
Keeper of the Lightw33
BatriderMTD
SnapfireZipZaper
VipermeLes
TuskPablo
Primal BeastHeaven
Treant Protectorbengan
SilencerLeBronDota
Game 2prediction missed5:28
Team Bald Reborn 56%Ancient Tribe 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 30:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarciGorgc
Drow Rangerlil pleb
BroodmotherZipZaper
Death ProphetMTD
Tinyw33
PangoliermeLes
PhoenixPablo
LichLeBronDota
Treant Protectorbengan
HoodwinkHeaven
Game 3prediction missed29:29
Team Bald Reborn 54%Ancient Tribe 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Bald Reborn — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windrangerw33
Medusalil pleb
BloodseekerGorgc
LeshracMTD
TuskZipZaper
EnigmameLes
SilencerPablo
RikiHeaven
Treant Protectorbengan
PangolierLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Bald Reborn · 58%
Series resultAncient Tribe 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3