Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
D2 Hustlersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
449 picks · 447 bans
Rubick
448 picks · 293 bans
Tiny
433 picks · 398 bans
Mirana
324 picks · 323 bans
Treant Protector
294 picks · 350 bans
Snapfire
268 picks · 137 bans
Ember Spirit
246 picks · 615 bans
Crystal Maiden
233 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:30
Alliance 51%D2 Hustlers 49%
The model gave 51% on Alliance — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 34:06.
Game 2prediction correct31:24
Alliance 51%D2 Hustlers 49%
The model gave 51% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 38:57.
Game 3prediction correct27:13
Alliance 51%D2 Hustlers 49%
The model gave 51% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 34:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 51%
Series resultAlliance 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3