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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

UD Vessuwan

Snapfire
Snapfire
Jhocam · 5 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
AlaCrity · 3 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Meracle · 3 games
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Beebie · 3 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
inYourdreaM · 3 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Jhocam · 2 games
0%
Marci
Marcioften banned
boombell · 2 games
50%

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tinysignature
inYourdreaM · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
inYourdreaM · 12 games
33%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Varizh · 11 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
NARMAN · 10 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Varizh · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
inYourdreaM · 9 games
56%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
woMy · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
443 picks · 289 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
443 picks · 447 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
431 picks · 398 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
322 picks · 322 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
289 picks · 345 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
264 picks · 136 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
241 picks · 612 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
232 picks · 160 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 53%
Hero pool strength60% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:23
UD Vessuwan 38%Army Geniuses 62%
The model gave 62% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 29:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
Doomtnt
40% · 135 games52% · 155 games
LeshracYowe
Leshrac
Lina
LinaKNP
49% · 255 games57% · 208 games
Templar AssassininYourdreaM
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckBeebie
57% · 248 games54% · 112 games
Broodmotherdb-
Broodmother
Snapfire
Snapfireboombell
43% · 361 game53% · 333 games
RubickJhocam
Rubick
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderLionaX
47% · 62 games47% · 253 games
ClockwerkVarizh
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct21:28
UD Vessuwan 38%Army Geniuses 62%
The model gave 62% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 34:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidKNP
54% · 25 games54% · 167 games
Monkey KinginYourdreaM
Monkey King
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophettnt
47% · 150 games50% · 177 games
BatriderYowe
Batrider
Pangolier
PangolierBeebie
50% · 334 games53% · 198 games
Beastmasterdb-
Beastmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenLionaX
46% · 192 games52% · 227 games
Treant ProtectorVarizh
Treant Protector
Tusk
Tuskboombell
47% · 340 games51% · 272 games
MiranaJhocam
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 67%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2