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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Big Brainwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Mystiqueloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Big Brain

Snapfire
Snapfire
Helios · 3 games
33%
Omniknight
Omniknight
Hara · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
eGo · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
eGo · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
phoenix · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
phoenix · 1 game
100%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
eGo · 1 game
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Hara · 1 game
100%

Team Mystique

Marci
Marcioften banned
Victoria · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
GodKing · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
White丶Album · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
XCJ · 1 game
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
XCJ · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
GodKing · 1 game
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
White丶Album · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Victoria · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
439 picks · 445 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 289 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 397 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
321 picks · 320 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
286 picks · 342 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
263 picks · 135 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
239 picks · 610 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
232 picks · 160 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Big Brain
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Big Brain
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:28
Big Brain 54%Team Mystique 46%
The model gave 54% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Team Mystique in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerManic
58% · 104 games47% · 121 game
Shadow Fiendzone-
Shadow Fiend
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMolasses
48% · 111 games55% · 206 games
Dragon KnightLin
Dragon Knight
Viper
Viperblessing
50% · 119 games50% · 342 games
MarsNj
Mars
Rubick
RubickTz.
48% · 271 game48% · 157 games
PhoenixDrink
Phoenix
Tiny
Tinymarblue
47% · 462 games49% · 241 game
Treant Protectorrayy
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct36:10
Big Brain 54%Team Mystique 46%
The model gave 54% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Big Brain in 32:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetManic
50% · 183 games52% · 114 games
PudgeLin
Pudge
Leshrac
Leshracblessing
52% · 174 games44% · 293 games
Ember Spiritzone-
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMolasses
54% · 273 games48% · 302 games
Death ProphetNj
Death Prophet
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmarblue
50% · 264 games53% · 310 games
TuskDrink
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTz.
51% · 245 games47% · 120 games
Winter Wyvernrayy
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction correct19:16
Big Brain 54%Team Mystique 46%
The model gave 54% on Big Brain — the game was taken by Big Brain in 34:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenManic
55% · 71 game43% · 94 games
Shadow Fiendzone-
Shadow Fiend
Sniper
Sniperblessing
54% · 60 games55% · 31 game
Night StalkerLin
Night Stalker
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMolasses
46% · 195 games55% · 103 games
Primal BeastNj
Primal Beast
Riki
Rikimarblue
58% · 43 games45% · 217 games
RubickDrink
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorTz.
46% · 123 games54% · 47 games
Svenrayy
Sven
Model check result
Model favoriteBig Brain · 56%
Series resultBig Brain 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3