Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. ЮВА. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Flowwin 2:1series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
XERXIAloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Flow
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 2 games
Marcioften banned
TrazaM · 2 games
Rubick
czy · 2 games
Broodmotheroften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
Unknown- · 1 game
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Unknown- · 1 game
Treant Protectoroften banned
TrazaM · 1 game
XERXIA
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
437 picks · 289 bans
Tusk
437 picks · 444 bans
Tiny
427 picks · 397 bans
Mirana
319 picks · 320 bans
Treant Protector
286 picks · 342 bans
Snapfire
262 picks · 135 bans
Ember Spirit
238 picks · 608 bans
Crystal Maiden
231 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 32%
Hero pool strength58% XERXIA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% XERXIA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:34
Team Flow 27%XERXIA 73%
The model gave 73% on XERXIA — the game was taken by XERXIA in 22:36.
Game 2prediction missed33:11
Team Flow 27%XERXIA 73%
The model gave 73% on XERXIA — the game was taken by Team Flow in 42:38.
Game 3prediction missed45:20
Team Flow 27%XERXIA 73%
The model gave 73% on XERXIA — the game was taken by Team Flow in 44:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteXERXIA · 73%
Series resultTeam Flow 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3