LBZS vs Team Disillusion — prediction DPC2S1КВД · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3

result vs prediction

LBZSwin 2:0

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Team Disillusionloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LBZS

No games played over 6 months.

Team Disillusion

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

540 picks · 361 bans

49%

Dark Willow

478 picks · 268 bans

51%

Mirana

416 picks · 186 bans

52%

Winter Wyvern

374 picks · 346 bans

56%

Ember Spirit

347 picks · 529 bans

56%

Windranger

324 picks · 155 bans

52%

Earth Spirit

303 picks · 535 bans

53%

Centaur Warrunner

301 picks · 298 bans

54%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% LBZS

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% LBZS

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed39:31

LBZS 49%Team Disillusion 51%

The model gave 51% on Team Disillusion — the game was taken by LBZS in 46:18.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo